Journal of African Economies Advance Access originally published online on April 13, 2005
Journal of African Economies 2005 14(3):385-410; doi:10.1093/jae/eji013
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Some Implications of GM Food Technology Policies for Sub-Saharan Africa
a World Bank, CEPR and University of Adelaideb WTO Secretariat, Geneva
The first generation of genetically modified (GM) crop varieties sought to increase farmer profitability through cost reductions or higher yields. The next generation of GM food research is focusing also on breeding for attributes of interest to consumers, beginning with ‘golden rice’, which has been genetically engineered to contain a higher level of vitamin A and thereby boost the health of unskilled labourers in developing countries. This paper analyses empirically the potential economic effects of adopting both types of innovation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It does so using the global economy-wide computable general equilibrium model known as GTAP. The results suggest the welfare gains are potentially very large, especially from golden rice and that—contrary to the claims of numerous interests—those estimated benefits are diminished only slightly by the presence of the European Union's current barriers to imports of GM foods. In particular, if SSA countries impose bans on GM crop imports in an attempt to maintain access to EU markets for non-GM products, the loss to domestic consumers due to that protectionism boost to SSA farmers is far more than the small gain in terms of greater market access to the EU.
1 Contact author: Kym Anderson, Development Research Group, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433, USA; tel.: +1 202 473 3387; fax: +1 202 522 1159; e-mail: kanderson{at}worldbank.org
Kym Anderson is Professor of Economics at, but on leave from, the University of Adelaide, and is now Lead Economist (Trade Policy) in the Development Research Group of the World Bank in Washington DC. Lee Ann Jackson is with Agriculture Division of the WTO Secretariat in Geneva. This paper was first drafted while both were with the Centre for International Economic Studies at the University of Adelaide. A revision was presented at the Conference on African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro–Micro Linkage, Somerset West, South Africa, 13–15 October 2004. Also circulated as CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4490, London, July 2004 and as World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3411, Washington DC, September 2004. We acknowledge with thanks helpful comments from referees and funding support from Australia's Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation and the Australian Research Council. The views expressed are the authors' alone and not necessarily those of their current employers.
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