This article appears in the following Journal of African Economics issue: AFRICAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH CONSORTIUM: Plenary Session May 2007 [View the issue table of contents]
Managing Post-Conflict Recovery in Africa: An Overview
a African Economic Research Consortium, Nairobi, Kenya
b Arab Planning Institute, Kuwait City, Kuwait
* Corresponding author: Olu Ajakaiye. E-mail: olu.ajakaiye{at}aercafrica.org
JEL classification: H56
The papers in this volume deal with some aspects of the process of development in post-conflict countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, namely, policy framework for transiting from post-conflict to sustainable development; mechanisms for financing post-conflict recovery; poverty reduction strategies during post-conflict recovery and distinctive features of post-conflict recovery strategies. It is remarkable that even though the four papers were independently written, three common themes run through them. The first is that post-conflict countries, in order to transit from recovery to sustainable development, need a planning framework with a fairly long-time horizon and an overarching objective of poverty reduction. The second is that economic and social policy-making in such countries is expected to be distinct from that usually undertaken in non-conflict countries, thus signalling the need for each country, given its circumstances, to articulate policy benchmarks that may, or may not, overlap with those proposed by International Financial Institutions (IFIs) and donors. The third major is the need for high volumes of aid flows to these countries; a controversial issue in the specialised literature on the effectiveness of aid. All of these major themes open up a vast area of research especially research based on country case studies.
 |
1. Introduction |
|---|
 TOP 1. Introduction 2. A Policy Framework3. Mechanisms for Financing...4. Poverty Reduction Strategies5. Distinctive Post-conflict...6. Concluding RemarksReferences |
|---|
The papers in this volume deal with some aspects of the process of development in post-conflict countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In recent years, there seems to have developed a quasi-consensus that development could be looked at as a ‘process of expanding the real freedoms that people enjoy’ (Sen, 1999, p. 3). Such an understanding of the development process is incorporated in the celebrated Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) adopted by the UN in September 2000.
Whatever their causes, it can be argued that conflicts undermine the various freedom dimensions with which the process of development is concerned. Freedom from fear and freedom from want are among the central pillars of human security. Post-conflict societies usually suffer from the lack of both types of freedom, and the development challenges facing such societies are expected to be distinctive compared with those facing peaceful ones.
The highest form of conflict is that of civil war, which is defined in the specialised literature as an internal conflict, involving the government, with at least 1000 battle-related deaths per year and at least 5% of the deaths inflicted by the weaker party. On the basis of such a definition, a post-conflict country could be identified by the coded date of the end of the latest civil war. Since independence in the early 1960s, a large number of SSA countries experienced a civil war. According to a compilation by Sambanis (2008), we currently have about 11 countries in post-conflict conditions, where countries with 10 or more years of post-conflict peace are regarded as having normalised and as such having emerged from the post-conflict phase to a development phase. The total population of the current post-conflict countries is about 166 million representing about 22% of SSA total population in 2005. A fairly large proportion that requires attention.
Most of the post-conflict SSA countries, like most of the other countries in the region, are dominated by the rural sector, have a young population and are poor. Both human poverty, as measured by United Nations Development Programme; and income poverty, as measured by the well-known head count ratio, are wide spread. In this respect, it is perhaps sufficient to note that the most recent revised estimates on poverty by region in the developing world shows that at a poverty line of US $1.25 (in 2005 purchasing power parity) SSA was the poorest region in the developing world in 2005: 50% of the population was living below the above international poverty line in 2005 (Chen and Ravallion, 2008).
Features additional to the above-noted ones in post-conflict countries in SSA seem to require special attention to be paid to the requirements for initiating, and sustaining, a meaningful development process. The remainder of this overview briefly summarises the issues addressed in the four papers and offers a few concluding remarks.
|
2. A Policy Framework |
|---|
|
TOP1. Introduction2. A Policy Framework3. Mechanisms for Financing...4. Poverty Reduction Strategies5. Distinctive Post-conflict...6. Concluding RemarksReferences |
|---|
Following a review of the empirical literature on conflict (causes of conflict, determinants of recovery from conflict, the risk of renewed conflict and policy in post-conflict situations), the paper by Ali proposes ‘A Policy Framework for Transiting from Post-Conflict to Sustainable Development in Sub-Saharan Africa’. The framework is based on a broader definition of development as a process of expanding the real freedom that people enjoy. The MDGs, it is suggested, should be understood as reflecting the acceptance by the international community of the above broader definition of ‘development as freedom’.
Under the MDGs the overarching objective of development is the reduction of poverty over a fairly long period of 25 years. In view of the fact that most SSA post-conflict countries are poor in terms of both income poverty and human poverty, a relevant framework for transiting from post-conflict recovery to sustained development can plausibly be formulated on the basis of the MDGs. Four dimensions that have immediate policy implications of the proposed framework are discussed in: a planning framework based on the overarching objective of development, wealth sharing, pro-poor growth and aid requirements. It is noted that the framework itself is capable of catering for other dimensions that may be deemed important in post-conflict situations.
Regarding the planning dimension of the proposed framework, it is suggested that post-conflict countries should endogenously determine the time horizon over which poverty could be reduced by half instead of taking the MDG planning horizon of 25 years for granted. Such a determination would depend upon, among other things, the structure of the economy, the stage of development of the country and the nature of poverty (as represented by the growth elasticity of poverty).
At a decentralised level, the above planning set-up can also be used to incorporate the vexing issue of wealth sharing. In this respect, it must be conceded that at the initial stage of post-conflict, and irrespective of the causes of such conflicts, it is the expressed grievances that need to be tackled. Inequality in the distribution of resources is one of the dimensions used to express such grievances. The proposed framework is shown to be able to provide a transparent mechanism of allocating available resources among the various groups in the country.
Related to the above two dimensions, it is suggested that a relevant policy framework in post-conflict countries must pay close attention to the pro-poor nature of the growth process. A reasonable requirement for a growth process to be defined as pro-poor is that if the poor enjoy the benefits of growth proportionately more than the non-poor. This requires that inequality should be concurrently declining through the course of growth. Post-conflict countries are thus encouraged to search for policies that can reduce the degree of inequality in the distribution of income while a growth process is being ignited. The paper notes that there is cross-country evidence that shows that such policies could include social transfers, state employment and investment in infrastructure in addition to the usual public expenditure on health and education.
The final dimension of the proposed framework is that of foreign aid requirements. It is argued that the framework would enable post-conflict countries to estimate the required foreign aid that can enable the achievement of the overarching objective of development. A simple Harrod-Domar growth model is used to demonstrate how such estimation could be undertaken.
Be the above as it may, it is suggested that there remains a number of research questions that need to be addressed in the context of sustainable development in SSA post-conflict countries. These include issues relating to the design of relevant planning models; the nature of relevant development policies; nature and role of regional inequalities in causing conflict and in post-conflict situations; the role of democratisation in sustaining peace; the requirements for accelerating growth in dual economies and detailed studies on the role of foreign aid in supporting a development process in post-conflict countries.
|
3. Mechanisms for Financing Post-conflict Recovery |
|---|
|
TOP1. Introduction2. A Policy Framework3. Mechanisms for Financing...4. Poverty Reduction Strategies5. Distinctive Post-conflict...6. Concluding RemarksReferences |
|---|
Issues relating to financing post-conflict recovery, from the perspective of the multilateral development institutions, are dealt with in the paper by Malambo, Kamara and Nyende: ‘Financing Post-conflict Recovery in Africa: The Role of International Development Assistance’. Following a review of the causes of conflicts in Africa, and the post-conflict challenges that face various countries, the paper identifies three areas that are deemed essential for post-conflict stabilisation, recovery and development: rebuilding the state and its key institutions; reviving the war-ravaged economies and rehabilitation, reconstruction and reintegration of communities. These challenges, it is argued, need to be addressed simultaneously.
The paper looks at the recent trends in official development assistance (ODA) to a sample of SSA post-conflict countries. It shows that over the period 2000–2005 ODA (inclusive of development projects, emergency aid and debt relief) to SSA post-conflict countries recorded an increase (with a dip in 2004). Over this period, the average emergency aid as a share of total net ODA varied from a low of 0.75% (for Mali) to a high of 35.5% (for Sudan).
Irrespective of how the above aid flows materialised, the paper notes that effective post-conflict financing mechanisms, from the perspective of financing institutions, should: include a common vision among donors; undertake a needs assessment or develop a transitional support programme or a poverty reduction programme; articulate an action plan jointly designed by all collaborating partners; assign a lead agency for the purposes of coordination and management; agree on a strategic financing mechanism and should cater for the monitoring and tracking of clearly defined expenditures.
On the basis of the above, the paper reviews the various instruments used by bilateral donors, multilateral agencies and International Financial Institutions (IFIs), for the purposes of responding to the financing needs of countries emerging from conflict. The instruments in question include emergency assistance, budget lines, post-conflict facilities, trust funds and special financing windows. The overall purpose of such instruments is to mobilise flexible, fast-disbursing funds to meet post-conflict needs.
|
4. Poverty Reduction Strategies |
|---|
|
TOP1. Introduction2. A Policy Framework3. Mechanisms for Financing...4. Poverty Reduction Strategies5. Distinctive Post-conflict...6. Concluding RemarksReferences |
|---|
It is perhaps very well known that since July 2002, the World Bank has based its plans for assistance to low-income countries on Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs). The paper by Obwona and Guloba on ‘Poverty Reduction Strategies during Post-Conflict Recovery in Africa’ looks critically at the relevance of PRSPs in post-conflict countries. Noting the five principles on which PRSP documents are based, the paper reviews African experience both in conflict-free countries (Zambia, Tanzania, Malawi and Ghana) and in post-conflict recovery countries (Burundi, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Mozambique, Angola and Uganda).
On the basis of the review of experience in formulating PRSPs in post-conflict countries, a number of challenges are identified. Among these challenges are: (a) the need to revisit the emphasis, by donors, on the PRSP as the sole mechanism of engagement with partner governments; (b) the need to incorporate peace building instruments as integral to the PRSP; (c) the need to address the lack of data in post-conflict countries for the appropriate formulation of the PRSP documents; (d) the need to take into account the trade-off between short-term macroeconomic objectives and long-term development goals; (e) the need to address the special economic and social needs of returning population; and, (f) the need to address issues of vertical and horizontal equity.
Overall, the paper argues that the current practice of PRSPs in post-conflict SSA countries has addressed only a few of the most important pillars for the successful implementation of such strategies. The primary goal for post-conflict countries, according to the paper, should be on governance, conflict resolution and security matters. Reconstruction of infrastructure is considered as an important peace building measure. While investment in the social sectors is a welcome poverty reduction strategy measure, investment in the productive sectors where most of the poor earn their living should not be under-emphasised (e.g., investment in agriculture).
Be the above as it may the paper argues that donors need to recognise that their insistence on the participation of various civil society organisations in the formulation of the PRSP documents would not be attainable in post-conflict countries. The reason for this pessimism regarding wide-ranging consultations on the PRSPs, even in conflict-free SSA countries, has to do with the agreed upon guidelines for the purposes of mobilising resources from the donors.
|
5. Distinctive Post-conflict Strategies |
|---|
|
TOP1. Introduction2. A Policy Framework3. Mechanisms for Financing...4. Poverty Reduction Strategies5. Distinctive Post-conflict...6. Concluding RemarksReferences |
|---|
Paul Collier's paper on ‘Post-conflict Recovery: How Should Strategies be Distinctive’ is concerned with economic policies in post-conflict situations compared with those in peaceful conditions. Drawing on the vast empirical work that he, and some of his associates, undertook on the economics of conflict, he offers two major reasons why such policies need to be distinctive: the higher risk of further conflict in such societies and the distinctive constraints and opportunities for policy-making created by the post-conflict situation.
On the basis of the above, the overarching objective in post-conflict situations is seen as the reduction of the risk of further conflict. Such an objective could be served by, among other policies, reducing the unemployment of the youth and downsizing the military rapidly and substantially. In addition, an effective deployment of peace-keeping forces would also reduce the risks involved, but this is obviously beyond the country's control.
Regarding political opportunities for, and constraints on, economic reforms in post-conflict situations the paper notes ‘the relatively high degree of willingness to reform, limited by an unusually low capacity to implement it’. The implication of this result is that in post-conflict situations there is a pressing need to prioritise reform correctly. In this respect, the paper discusses four aspects of the real economy that make post-conflict policy design distinctive. These include the reconstruction of infrastructure; the management of capital flight and repatriation; the management of commodity booms and the management of construction booms. Under each of these aspects, the paper presents refreshing insights.
In addition to the above, the paper suggests that post-conflict countries face distinctive problems related to how revenue is raised and how expenditures are implemented. With respect to revenues, these countries need to have a taxation regime with low tax rates on earned income. They also need to mount efforts to attract large, and sustained aid inflows. Such a recommendation questions the conventional wisdom of requiring such countries to increase domestic tax revenues rapidly and to reduce dependence on aid.
Regarding strategies for government expenditure, given the institutional weakness of post-conflict countries, the paper proposes the creation of Independent Service Authorities (ISA) to provide incremental services. An ISA is supposed to contract out the provision of core public services to a range of suppliers. While spending by these special units is envisaged to fall within the remit of the annual budgets, their remuneration packages need not be tied to civil service levels. Moreover, an ISA is not to be under the control of a minister; and all ISAs are to be funded from donor resources.
|
6. Concluding Remarks |
|---|
|
TOP1. Introduction2. A Policy Framework3. Mechanisms for Financing...4. Poverty Reduction Strategies5. Distinctive Post-conflict...6. Concluding RemarksReferences |
|---|
Despite the fact that the authors of these papers were commissioned independently, there is a remarkable similarity among the papers regarding the required approach to effect, and sustain, development in post-conflict countries in SSA. A major common theme running through the papers is that post-conflict countries, in order to transit from recovery to sustainable development, need a planning framework with a fairly long-time horizon and an overarching objective of poverty reduction (explicit in the papers by Ali; Mlambo, Kamara and Nyende; and Obwona and Guloba; and implicit in Collier).
This is remarkable given the vehement critique of the ‘planning’ approach to development articulated by Easterly (2006), especially the planning role played by IFIs and donor organisations. Another major theme, though obvious but largely under-emphasised by the advisors, is that economic and social policy-making in such countries is expected to be distinct from that usually undertaken in non-conflict countries. This signals the need for each country, given its circumstances, to articulate policy benchmarks that may, or may not, overlap with those proposed by IFIs and donors. A third major theme is the need for high volumes of aid flows to these countries, a controversial issue in the specialised literature on the effectiveness of aid. All of these major themes open up a vast area of research especially research based on country case studies.
|
References |
|---|
|
TOP1. Introduction2. A Policy Framework3. Mechanisms for Financing...4. Poverty Reduction Strategies5. Distinctive Post-conflict...6. Concluding RemarksReferences |
|---|
-
Chen S., Ravallion M. The Developing World Is Poorer than We Thought, but No Less Successful in the Fight against Poverty. (2008) Policy Research Working Paper No. 4703, www.worldbank.org (accessed May 2009).
Easterly W. The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done so Much Ill and so Little Good (2006) New York: The Penguin Press.
Sambanis N. (2008) List of Civil Wars: Updated to 2006, http://pantheon.yale.edu (accessed 13 October 2008).
Sen A. Development as Freedom (1999) Oxford University Press.
CiteULike 
Connotea 
Del.icio.us What's this?
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||